Pike Research
Cleantech Market Intelligence
Conquering the (Power) Potential of the Wild West
We’re trying to conquer the Wild West, again. Driven by a pioneering spirit, technological advancements, and help from the federal government, settlers developed the West in search of wealth and new ways of life. This well-worn story also sounds like the plot of our modern Western tale – new technologies are expanding the development of the Western United States power grid to tap vast renewable energy resources and get them to market. What’s at stake? Land rights, new wealth opportunities, and potentially a new energy future.
Western states like California, Colorado, and Texas all have vast renewable resources which are being developed thanks to renewable portfolio standards (RPS), population growth, and federal production tax credits. Sounds like a modern Western with email and electrons instead of the Pony Express and gold. The problem is, in many cases, development of renewable resources is still uneconomic. Resources are too far away from load centers (much like the first trading posts) and the infrastructure isn’t in place to get it there. Enter the pioneering spirit (or entrepreneurial spirit if you like) and technological innovation.
The cowboy in this tale is Tres Amigas LLC, in New Mexico, which plans to use high-voltage, direct current cables, modern power electronics, and battery storage to wrangle the three asynchronous grids in the United States (the Western Interconnect, the Eastern Interconnect, and the Electric Reliability Council of Texas). The Tres Amigas SuperStation intends to connect the three grids in order to deliver renewable power to markets across the country. The SuperStation will make use of AC/DC voltage-source converters (VSCs), one for each grid point, and HVDC cables in a triangular design, which should limit the line losses to nearly zero. On-site battery storage (provided by Xtreme Power) should help solve intermittency issues. With such a design, opportunities for energy arbitrage could help deliver renewable power at more appealing prices to markets where demand is high. Guaranteeing buyers for renewable power could encourage project developers and speed up compliance with RPS.
While one could argue the expansion of transmission infrastructure in the West was inevitable, Manifest Destiny is less of a driver than technological innovation. Pike Research forecasts increased use of HVDC equipment and the necessary power electronics for new transmission infrastructure over the next five years. The reduced line losses and conversions (renewable power is inherently direct current) associated with HVDC equipment makes transmission development easier on the pocket book. We see large power transmission companies like ABB, Alstom, and GE moving in the direction of DC equipment at all levels of the transmission and distribution network. ABB and Alstom are providing equipment for the Tres Amigas project.
In every great Western saga there is a stand-off. In this tale, the dispute revolves around territorial rights (yes, it comes from the ardent defender of state’s rights, Texas) from its grid operator, ERCOT. Tres Amigas will operate as a transmission service provider, offering services to the three integrated grids. This will require oversight and regulation by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), something ERCOT is not currently subjected to because they do not sell power across state lines. Could Tres Amigas enable Texas to sell into other markets, giving them much to gain from the project? While the dispute is unlikely to be resolved via a duel it will surely yield some new law and order on the matter.
Those holding the reins at Tres Amigas LLC, former heads of PJM and CAISO, bring expertise in competitive electricity markets and power generation and delivery in Western territories. The project is also bringing together expertise from CH2MHill, Viridity Energy, Power Engineers, and American Superconductor.
Although construction on the roughly $5 billion project is not scheduled to begin until next year, wealth from exploring the West’s natural resources may be a bit closer.