We’ve all seen the news for the last couple of years about the new all-electric and plug-in hybrid manufacturers.  Tesla Motors alone has generated enough press and buzz to get any investor excited.  And there are plenty of others too… Aptera, Fisker Automotive, Phoenix Motors, and those are just the few I can think of off the top of my head without Googling.  Add to this the meltdown of Chrysler and GM and you may be thinking these are the new American titans of the automobile industry!

First some disclosure, I live in Detroit.  I’ve lived here for more than 15 years, and I’ve made my living as a consultant to all three of the Big Three.  I’ve also done work for Toyota and Porsche, as well as a smattering of some other manufacturers and suppliers over the years.  So, while I’m definitely not a “company man” (I’ve owned a VW and currently drive a Subaru) there’s no denying this stuff strikes near and dear to my heart. 

That said, in the first quarter of 2009, GM sold 409,702 vehicles and Toyota sold 359,671 vehicles in the U.S. according to Automotive News.  Tesla has two dealerships in LA and Menlo Park, with one model for sale for $101,000 (their second vehicle, the Model S sedan is expected to launch in 2010).  Fisker is working to sign agreements with existing dealer groups, though neither of these automakers have the factory space or retail avenues to be able to build and sell 100,000+ vehicles per month. 

However, these start-ups are doing two important things of note: generating new excitement in an industry that feeds on (and needs) excitement and spurring development of new vehicle technology.  There is a business model that describes this kind of activity and is a much better fit to these manufacturers: one of specialty manufacturers like Saleen and others that show at SEMA.  Tesla, Fisker, et al remain untested in a true mass market, and are not really aiming to be tested in the mass market.  That’s just fine.  That’s their business model, but it’s not a model that will make them the next GM.

Over 90 years (of varying success), GM, Toyota, Ford, Honda, and the other major car companies have figured out how to manufacture a wide range of products at a wide range of price points, in a number of plants, and with sales offices and service centers in almost every city of the country.  Even our most recent entry here in the states, Hyundai, had been building and selling vehicles for many years in Korea before they launched in the U.S.  As I look from my window in Detroit, it seems to me that those who look to Tesla as a replacement for GM or Toyota do to not really understand the complexity of the car business (though Tesla’s financial news does sound a lot like Detroit these days).

Can Tesla and Fisker be successful without becoming the next GM or Toyota?  Maybe, it depends on how deep their investor pockets are (they are pretty darn deep).  Can GM or Toyota learn something from Tesla and Fisker?  Probably.  And, I’d bet they’ll learn something at SEMA too.