As the clean energy industry emerges from a challenging period caused by the global economic downturn, it is entering a stage of rapid change in which business models are being transformed against a backdrop of regulatory uncertainty. In several key sectors, the market is shifting back toward business structures and technologies that were once abandoned, but are now being revived.

Evidence of these changes can be seen with utilities becoming more involved again with power generation deployments, which runs counter to deregulation trends originating in the 1970s, with the most radical shift occurring within the solar sector. When it comes to technology, the growing popularity of direct current (DC) at both the micro-distribution and high-voltage transmission levels of service is an unexpected development for many in the industry, and would make Thomas Edison proud. Another overarching theme in the clean energy market is the increasing diversity of scale and resources being deployed within the renewable sector, a sign, no doubt, of the growing maturity of this market segment.

This Pike Research white paper presents ten key trends shaping future markets for clean energy including not only renewable energy – solar, wind, geothermal, biomass, and hydrokinetic – but also natural gas-fired microturbines and nuclear power. Most of these technologies will become integral elements of the clean energy mix. Conclusions and predictions presented in this paper draw from a broad array of Pike Research reports, with market forecasts included for key sectors.

What does this report answer?

• Which are the key clean energy technologies that are poised for major growth over the next five years (and which look like losers)?
• How are utilities becoming more active in the solar and wind power sectors?
• Why is society moving offshore to generate clean power with wind, hydrokinetic, and solar technologies?
• Could base load geothermal power generation technologies become a beneficiary of the rapid growth in wind and solar?
• Why is the revival of waste-to-energy technologies shifting from Europe to China?
• Why is China’s market for wind power slowing down and could solar PV be the next big thing in China?
• Does the nuclear industry have a future in the United States?

Who needs this report?

• Clean energy project developers
• Clean energy equipment vendors
• Clean energy service providers
• Utilities
• Government agencies
• Investor community
• Industry associations
• Non-profit organizations

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

1.1   Ten Trends to Watch in Clean Energy

1.1.1     Global Deployment Trends

1.1.2     Global Renewable Technology Trends

1.1.3     China’s Cleantech Growth and the Future of Nuclear Power

2. Global Deployment Trends

2.1   Utilities Back Into Key Renewable Energy Markets

2.1.1     Utility-Owned, Utility-Scale Solar PV in California

2.1.2     Offshore Wind Power in Europe

2.2   Economies of Scale Trends

2.2.1     Bigger Is Better

2.2.2     Small Is Beautiful

2.3   Moving from Traditional Terrestrial Sites to Marine Sites

2.3.1     Offshore Wind Power

2.3.2     Hydrokinetic Technologies

2.3.3     Floating Solar PV

2.4   Direct Current Systems May Transform Clean Energy  Markets

3. Global Renewable Energy Trends

3.1   Greater Diversification within the Solar Sector

3.2   Greater Diversification within the Wind Sector

3.3   Waste-to-Energy Market: China, Europe, and the United States

3.3.1     Geothermal on a Comeback in United States Thanks to Western State RPS Laws

4. China’s Cleantech Growth  and the Future of Nuclear Power

4.1   Is China’s Wind Power Growth Rate Sustainable?

4.2   Did Nuclear Power Just Miss the Boat?

5. Acronym and Abbreviation List

6. Table of Contents

7. Table of Charts and Figures

8. Additional Reading

9. Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

• Utility-Scale Cumulative Solar PV Capacity, United States: 2010-2016
• Offshore Wind Installed Capacity, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2011-2017
• Concentrated Solar Power Installed Capacity, United States: 2010-2016
• Waste-to-Energy Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2010-2016
• Clipper Wind’s 10 MW “Britannia” Offshore Wind Design
• Wave and Tidal Energy Potential, North America
• DC Systems Already Proliferate in Today’s Home Environments
• Comparisons of Line Losses between AC and DC Transmission Cables
• Mid-Sized Wind Market for North America, Average Scenario: 2007-2015
• U.S. Geothermal Capacity by State: 2010-2020