The solar energy market has undergone a dramatic transformation over the past two years, driven by a new abundance of polysilicon, the effects of the worldwide financial crisis, and the plunging price of solar modules. As a result of these factors, the solar industry has shifted from supply-constrained to demand-driven, and a few strong companies have been able to strengthen their revenues and market share based on a low cost per watt combined with high module efficiency.

This market realignment will set the stage for a new era of solar growth over the next several years, and Pike Research forecasts that worldwide demand will nearly double between 2010 and 2013, reaching 19.3 gigawatts by the end of that period. In this market environment, some of the key differentiators that will determine success for solar suppliers will include cost per watt, module efficiency, presence in key growth markets, supply chain integration, and availability of financing.

This Pike Research report provides a comprehensive analysis of the supply and demand dynamics in the rapidly changing global solar market. It examines the underlying economics of solar manufacturing and assesses the industry’s progress toward grid parity from a cost perspective. The report includes a detailed analysis of key solar industry players and outlines the key differentiators that will cause some suppliers to thrive, and others to fall by the wayside.

Key questions addressed:

• How has the solar energy market been fundamentally altered by new market trends in the past two years?
• What will be the key market trends and issues to watch during the next several years?
• What are the key competitive differentiators that will characterize successful solar companies over the next few years?
• What is the forecast for solar market demand in key countries around the world?
• Who are the Tier 1 and Tier 2 competitors in the solar market?
• How will manufacturing capacity compare to demand over the next few years ?

Who needs this report?

• Solar Project Developers
• Solar Installers/Integrators
• Solar Cell and Module Manufacturers
• Solar Equipment Vendors
• Government Agencies
• Investor Community
• Solar Industry Associations
• Utilities

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

2. The New Solar Market

2.1 Solar’s Shift to a Demand-Driven Market in 2009

2.2 What Caused the Solar Market Shift in 2009?

2.3 Demand Elasticity Now Defines the Path to Grid Parity

3. Solar Market Demand Forecast

3.1 Demand in Germany

3.2 Demand in Other EU Countries

3.2.1 Italy

3.2.2 France

3.2.3 Spain

3.2.4 Czech Republic

3.2.5 Rest of Europe

3.3 Demand in Asia

3.3.1 Japan

3.3.2 China

3.3.3 South Korea

3.3.4 India

3.3.5 Rest of Asia

3.4 Demand in NAFTA

3.4.1 United States

3.4.2 Canada

3.5 Demand in Rest of World

3.6 Worldwide Demand

4. Solar Industry Capacity and Oversupply

4.1 Solar Supply Now Determined by Most Competitive Capacity

4.2 Module Capacity of Tier 1 Companies

4.3 Module Capacity of Tier 2 Companies

4.4 Module Capacity of Tier 3 Companies

4.5 The Net Result

5. Surviving Company Differentiators

5.1 Introduction

5.2 Low-Cost Poly and Wafers

5.3 Low-Cost Process Materials

5.4 Low-Cost Processing

5.5 Module Efficiency

5.6 Economies of Scale

5.7 Other Cost/Efficiency Factors

6. Other Company Differentiators

6.1 Market Presence in Major and Growth Markets

6.2 Moving Down the Supply Chain

6.3 Strong Balance Sheets and Internal Financing of Growth

6.4 Module Manufacturing in NAFTA and Low-Cost EU Countries

6.5 Strong Position in Niche Markets

7. Tier 1 Solar Companies

7.1 Revenue Growth of Tier 1 Companies

7.2 Plunging ASPs and Profitability of Tier 1 Companies

7.3 New Standards Set in Low-Cost Manufacturing

7.4 Capacity Growth Plans

8. Tier 2 Solar Companies

8.1 Introduction

8.2 Companies Likely to Restructure, Move to Low-Cost Manufacturing

8.3 Emerging Companies with Likely Competitive Technologies, Manufacturing

8.4 Companies that Could Leverage Existing Cost Advantages

8.5 Companies that Serve Niche Markets

9. Tier 3 Solar Companies

9.1 Introduction

9.2 c-Si Module Manufacturers

9.3 CIGS Module Manufacturers

9.4 a-Si Module Manufacturers and SunFab Lines

10. Company Directory

11. Acronym and Abbreviation List

12. Table of Contents

13. Table of Charts and Figures

14. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

• Solar Market Demand, Base Case, World Markets: 2008-2013
• Solar Market Demand, Upside Scenario, World Markets: 2008-2013
• Electrical Power Generation Capacity by Energy Source, United States: 2010
• Total Solar Planned Capacity vs. Base Case Demand, World Markets: 2008-2013
• Typical
• Total Solar Planned Capacity vs. Upside Demand, World Markets: 2008-2013
• Solar Supply Scenarios, World Markets: 2010
• Solar Oversupply Scenarios, World Markets: 2010
• Module Efficiency by Technology
• Revenues of Low-Cost Companies, China: 2008-2010
• Solar Company Revenues, United States and Germany: 2008-2010
• Module Average Selling Prices: 2008-2010
• Gross Margin by Company, Selected Low-Cost Suppliers: 2008-2010
• Gross Margin by Company, First Solar, Q Cells, and Sun Power: 2008-2010
• Silicon Usage: 2008-2010
• Silicon Costs: 2008-2010
• Non-Silicon Costs: 2008-2010
• Module Manufacturing Costs, First Solar: 2008-2010
• Solar Market Demand Shift
• Best Research-Cell Efficiencies
• Module Supply Chain
• Downstream Supply Chain

List of Tables

• Solar Demand, Germany: 2008-2013
• Solar Demand, Italy: 2008-2013
• Solar Demand, France: 2008-2013
• Solar Demand, Spain: 2008-2013
• Solar Demand, Czech Republic: 2008-2013
• Solar Demand, Rest of Europe: 2008-2013
• Solar Demand, Japan: 2008-2013
• Solar Demand, China: 2008-2013
• Solar Demand, South Korea: 2008-2013
• Solar Demand, India: 2008-2013
• Solar Demand, United States: 2008-2013
• Solar Demand, Canada: 2008-2013
• Solar Demand, Rest of World: 2008-2013
• Solar Demand, World Markets: 2008-2013
• Solar Wholesale Revenues, Base Demand Scenario, World Markets: 2008-2013
• Solar Wholesale Revenues, Upside Demand Scenario, World Markets: 2008-2013
• Tier 1 Solar Competitors: 2010
• Tier 1 Solar Supplier Capacity, World Markets: 2008-2013
• Tier 2 Solar Competitors: 2010
• Tier 2 Solar Supplier Capacity, World Markets: 2008-2013
• Tier 3 Solar Supplier Capacity, World Markets: 2008-2013