While transit buses have long been the platform for testing new drivetrains in the heavy duty vehicle market, within the last couple years the medium and heavy-duty truck market has started to see vehicles with hybrid electric and hydraulic hybrid drivetrains. In 2010 and 2011, mainstream truck brands Navistar and Freightliner will start to offer battery electric medium-duty trucks, as well as several smaller, new brands already in market. Fleet managers are seeking tools to insulate themselves from growing fuel costs and increasingly stringent emissions regulations, while at the same time reducing their environmental impact, without compromising on vehicle requirements. These vehicles promise a reduction in fuel consumption between 5% and 50% depending on design, which will help reduce costs and emissions. Pike Research forecasts that sales of medium/heavy duty hybrid, plug-in hybrid and battery electric trucks are will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 63%, with sales of almost 300,000 vehicles, during the period from 2010 to 2015.

This Pike Research report analyzes the opportunities and challenges in the market for hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and battery electric medium and heavy-duty trucks and buses. The report provides a comprehensive examination of hybrid and battery technologies, along with key drivers of demand from medium/heavy-duty truck fleet customers. The report also explores global government regulations related to diesel emissions and hybrid purchase incentives. It includes detailed forecasts through 2015 for commercial vehicle registrations, hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and battery electric medium and heavy-duty trucks segmented by country and world region, as well as bus fleets for the United States. Key market players are also profiled.

Key questions addressed:

• What are the different types of hybrid systems used with truck and bus chassis?
• How does a hybrid electric truck differ from a hydraulic hybrid truck?
• How do electronic power take off (EPTO) hybrid systems work to reduce fuel consumption?
• How much recognition is there among fleet managers that PHEVs will reduce their fuel consumption and carbon footprint, and how important are those reductions to fleet managers?
• How do fleet managers decide if hybrid trucks and buses will be cost effective for them?
• What the key technologies used in hybrid medium and heavy-duty trucks and buses?
• What are the key regulatory and technological issues with ultra low sulfur diesel (ULSD) engines for trucks and buses?
• How large are the hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and battery electric medium and heavy-duty truck markets and how fast are sales of these vehicles expected to grow?
• What are the key drivers of growth in the hybrid (HEV), plug-in hybrid (PHEV) and battery electric (BEV) truck and bus market?
• Who are the key industry players in the HEV, PHEV, and BEV truck and bus market?

Who needs this report?

• Vehicle manufacturers
• Vehicle component suppliers
• Battery manufacturers
• Government agencies
• Transportation industry associations
• Fleet managers
• Utilities
• Investor community

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

2. Market Issues

2.1 Definitions

2.2 Overview by Truck Types

2.2.1 Medium-Duty Delivery Trucks

2.2.2 Medium-Duty Trucks for Nondelivery Applications

2.2.3 Heavy-Duty Trucks

2.2.4 Over-the-Road Heavy-Duty Trucks

2.2.5 Buses

2.3 Industry Impact on Hybrid Truck Market

2.3.1 Economic Growth of Specific Industries

2.4 Purchase Costs of Hybrid Systems

2.4.1 Recovery of Cost Premiums

2.5 Impact on the Market from Alternative Fuel Vehicles

2.5.1 Biodiesel

2.5.2 Natural Gas Buses and Trucks

2.5.3 Fuel Cell Buses and Trucks

2.6 Service and Maintenance Issues with Hybrid Trucks

3. Technology Issues

3.1 Hybrid Truck Drivetrains

3.1.1 Parallel Hybrid Electric Design

3.1.2 Series Hybrids

3.1.3 Mild EPTO Hybrids

3.2 Auxiliary Power Units in Heavy-Duty Classes 7 and 8

3.3 Plug-in Hybrids and Battery Electric Trucks

3.4 Recharging Infrastructure

3.4.1 Electric Utilities and Smart Grid Technologies

3.5 Voltage and Current Conversion

3.6 Battery Technology

3.6.1 Lead-Acid Batteries

3.6.2 Nickel-Metal Hydride Batteries

3.6.3 Lithium-Ion Batteries

3.6.4 Lithium-Titanate Batteries

3.7 Ultracapacitors

3.8 Regenerative Braking

3.9 Hydraulic Hybrid Systems

3.10 Emissions Control Equipment

4. Demand Drivers

4.1 Fuel Prices

4.2 “No Idle” Rules

4.3 Greening of Fleets

4.4 Government Emissions Regulations

4.4.1 United States

4.4.1.1 EPA Emissions Limitations

4.4.2 Canada

4.4.3 South America

4.4.4 Europe

4.4.5 Japan

4.4.6 China

4.4.7 Other Markets

4.5 Government Incentives

4.5.1 United States

4.5.2 Canada

4.5.3 Europe

4.5.4 Japan

4.5.5 China

5. Key Industry Players

5.1 Original Equipment Manufacturers

5.1.1 Altec Industries

5.1.2 Azure Dynamics

5.1.3 Beiqi Foton Motor Co. Ltd.

5.1.4 Crane Carrier Company

5.1.5 Daimler Trucks/Freightliner

5.1.6 Dueco/Odyne

5.1.7 Electric Vehicles International

5.1.8 Ford Motor Co.

5.1.9 General Motors

5.1.10 Gillig Corp.

5.1.11 Hyundai

5.1.12 Iveco

5.1.13 MAN SE

5.1.14 Mitsubishi Fuso Truck

5.1.15 Navistar/International Truck and Engine Corp.

5.1.16 New Flyer Bus

5.1.17 Nissan and Renault

5.1.18 Orion Bus

5.1.19 Proterra

5.1.20 PACCAR/Kenworth/Peterbilt/DAF

5.1.21 Toyota Motor Corp./Hino

5.1.22 Terex Utilities

5.1.23 Volvo Trucks

5.1.24 Zero Truck

5.2 Key Suppliers

5.2.1 A123 Systems

5.2.2 ArvinMeritor

5.2.3 BAE Systems

5.2.4 Bosch Rexroth AG

5.2.5 Cobasys

5.2.6 Dow Kokam Inc.

5.2.7 Eaton Corp.

5.2.8 Enova Systems Inc.

5.2.9 ISE Corp.

5.2.10 Johnson Controls-Saft

5.2.11 LG Chemical/Compact Power

5.2.12 Maxwell Technologies

5.2.13 Panasonic EV Energy

5.2.14 Siemens

5.2.15 UQM Technologies

5.2.16 Valence Energy Storage Solutions

5.2.17 ZF Friedrichshafen AG

6. Market Forecasts

6.1 Commercial Vehicle Registrations

6.1.1 North America

6.1.2 Europe

6.1.3 Asia Pacific

6.2 Hybrid Medium-Duty Truck Sales

6.2.1 North America

6.2.2 Europe

6.2.3 Asia Pacific

6.3 Hybrid Heavy-Duty Truck Sales

6.4 United States Trucks by Vehicle Type

6.5 Plug-in Hybrid Medium-Duty Truck Sales

6.6 Plug-in Hybrid Heavy-Duty Truck Sales

6.7 Battery Electric Medium-Duty Truck Sales

6.8 Battery Electric Heavy-Duty Truck Sales

6.9 Summary and Conclusions

7. Company Directory

8. Acronym and Abbreviation List

9. Table of Contents

10. Table of Charts and Figures

11. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

• Petroleum Consumption by Transportation Sector, United States
• HEV/PHEV/BEV MD and HD Truck Sales, World Markets: 2010–2015
• Petroleum Consumption by Sector, Total and Transportation, United States
• Typical State of Charge for Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles
• Average Yearly On-Highway Diesel Costs per Liter, World Markets: 2010-2015
• Energy Use by Trucks: 1970–2020
• Commercial Vehicle Registrations, World Markets: 2010–2015
• Hybrid Electric Medium-Duty Truck Sales, World Markets: 2010–2015
• Hybrid Electric Medium-Duty Truck Sales, North America: 2010–2015
• Hybrid Electric Medium-Duty Truck Sales, Europe: 2010–2015
• Hybrid Electric Medium-Duty Truck Sales, Asia Pacific: 2010–2015
• Hybrid Electric Heavy-Duty Truck Sales, World Markets: 2010–2015
• Truck Sales by Vehicle Type, United States: 2010–2015
• PHEV Medium-Duty Truck Sales, World Markets: 2010–2015
• PHEV Heavy-Duty Truck Sales, World Markets: 2010–2015
• BEV Medium-Duty Truck Sales, World Markets: 2010–2015
• BEV Heavy-Duty Truck Sales, World Markets: 2010–2015
• United States Truck Classes
• Cutaway-Cab and Stripped-Chassis Vehicles
• Cab-and-Chassis Vehicles
• Hybrid Truck Electric System
• Eaton Corp. Hydraulic Series Hybrid System
• Diesel Engine Emission Control System
• European Vehicle Classes
• Hybrid Electric Buses in Operation by State, United States: 2010
• Typical Hybrid Vehicle Costs
• Cost of Diesel Compared to Other Fuels

List of Tables

• Annual Growth in Total HEV Light-Duty Vehicle Sales, World Markets: 2010-2015
• Total HEV Light-Duty Vehicle Sales, World Markets: 2010-2015
• Annual Growth in Fleet HEV Light-Duty Vehicle Sales, World Markets: 2010-2015
• Fleet HEV Light-Duty Vehicle Sales, World Markets: 2010-2015
• Annual Growth in HEV Medium-Duty Truck Sales, World Markets: 2010-2015
• HEV Medium-Duty Truck Sales, World Markets: 2010-2015
• Annual Growth in HEV Heavy-Duty Truck Sales, World Markets: 2010-2015
• HEV Heavy-Duty Truck Sales, World Markets: 2010-2015
• Annual Growth in Total HEV Sales, World Markets: 2010-2015
• Total HEV Sales, World Markets: 2010-2015
• Annual Growth in Total PHEV Light-Duty Vehicle Sales, World Markets: 2010-2015
• Total PHEV Light-Duty Vehicle Sales, World Markets: 2010-2015
• Annual Growth in Fleet PHEV Light-Duty Vehicle Sales, World Markets: 2010-2015
• Fleet PHEV Light-Duty Vehicle Sales, World Markets: 2010-2015
• Annual Growth in PHEV Medium-Duty Truck Sales, World Markets: 2010-2015
• PHEV Medium-Duty Truck Sales, World Markets: 2010-2015
• Annual Growth in PHEV Heavy-Duty Truck Sales, World Markets: 2010-2015
• Annual PHEV Heavy-Duty Truck Fleet Sales (GVW >26,000 lbs), World Markets: 2010-2015
• Annual Growth in Total PHEV Sales, World Markets: 2010-2015
• Total PHEV Sales, World Markets: 2010-2015
• Annual Growth in Total BEV Light-Duty Consumer Vehicle Sales, World Markets: 2010-2015
• Total BEV Light-Duty Consumer Vehicle Sales, World Markets: 2010-2015
• Annual Growth in Fleet BEV Light-Duty Vehicle Sales, World Markets: 2010-2015
• Fleet BEV Light-Duty Vehicle Sales, World Markets: 2010-2015
• Annual Growth in BEV Medium-Duty Truck Fleet Sales, World Markets: 2010-2015
• BEV Medium-Duty Truck Fleet Sales, World Markets: 2010-2015
• Annual Growth in BEV Heavy-Duty Truck Sales, World Markets: 2010-2015
• BEV Heavy-Duty Truck Sales, World Markets: 2010-2015
• Annual Growth in Total BEV Sales, World Markets: 2010-2015
• Total BEV Sales, World Markets: 2010-2015
• HEV/PHEV/BEV Combined MD and HD Truck Fleet Sales, World Markets: 2010-2015
• Annual Growth in Sales by Truck Type, United States: 2010-2015
• Sales by Truck Type, United States: 2010-2015
• Annual Growth in Commercial Vehicle Registrations: 2010-2015
• Commercial Vehicle Registrations, World Markets: 2010-2015
• Total Operating MD and HD Bus Fleets, United States: 2010
• Average Yearly Cost for On-Highway Diesel, World Markets: 2010-2015