The electrification of the automobile has been slowly progressing over the last 10 years, ever since the arguably false start in the late 1990s.  While hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) have been proliferating recently, a new breed is on the verge of launching:  the plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV).  Promising dramatically improved fuel economy, PHEVs have come about largely from the convergence of two technologies:  HEVs and lithium ion (Li-ion) batteries.

A mix of consumer demand and government incentives is fueling the development of PHEVs.  Governments are encouraging improved fuel economy either implicitly by regulating it, as in the United States, or by charging high fuel taxes or limits on vehicle emissions, as in Europe.  In addition, automakers are counting on consumers who have demonstrated strong interest in HEVs to show similar willingness to purchase PHEVs.  Pike Research forecasts that PHEV programs will initially focus on the small car segment (80% of sales in 2015), followed closely by the small SUV segment (10% of sales by 2015).  By 2015, we anticipate the U.S. will be the largest market for HEVs and PHEVs, selling approximately 640,000 vehicles in these two categories combined.  China will be the second-largest market with more than 560,000 hybrid vehicles sold that same year.  By that time, Pike Research forecasts that there will be a total of 1.7 million PHEVs on the world’s roadways.

This Pike Research report analyzes the emerging PHEV market with a focus on business issues and demand drivers, technology issues such as the use of advanced batteries and the need for electric vehicle charging infrastructure, the effects of regulatory standards and government incentives around the world, and an in-depth assessment of major OEMs’ PHEV programs.  Detailed market data and forecasts include PHEV sales and registrations for world markets, sales figures for the total light vehicle and HEV markets to provide context for these numbers, and projected PHEV market shares for selected manufacturers.

Key questions addressed:

• What HEV and PHEV programs are planned for the next few years?
• What are the consumer acceptance issues associated with PHEVs?
• How will the PHEV market be segmented between different vehicle classes?
• What are the key technologies used in HEVs and PHEVs?
• how big are the HEV and PHEV markets and how large are these markets expected to grow?
• What are the key drivers of growth in the HEV and PHEV markets?
• What will be the effects of regulatory standards and government incentives on the emerging PHEV market?
• Who are the key industry players in the HEV and PHEV markets?
• How ill the adoption of PHEVs vary by world region?

Who needs this report?

• OEM Vehicle Marketing Managers
• Vehicle Component Suppliers
• Battery Manufacturers
• Government Environmental Agencies
• Government Transportation Agencies
• Environmental Transportation Advocacy Groups
• Vehicle Trade Associations
• Utility Managers
• Investor Community

Table of Contents

1.     Executive Summary

2.     Market Issues

2.1 History

2.2 Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles

2.2.1 PHEVs by Vehicle Type

2.2.1.1 Passenger Cars

2.2.1.2 Light Trucks

2.2.2 Competition from Chinese Manufacturers

2.3 Product Demand vs. Development

2.3.1 Other “Green” Vehicle Technologies

2.3.1.1 Battery Electric Vehicles

2.3.1.2 Hydrogen-Powered Vehicles

2.3.1.3 Fuel Cell Vehicles

2.3.2 Chrysler and General Motors Bankruptcy Impact on PHEV Development

2.3.3 Automotive X-Prize

2.3.4 Urban Planning Impact on Automobile Development

3.     Technology Issues

3.1 Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle Drivetrains

3.1.1 Terminology Defined

3.1.2 Parallel Hybrid Design

3.1.2.1 Belt Alternator Start

3.1.2.2 Mild Hybrids

3.1.2.3 Full Hybrids

3.1.3 Series Hybrid Design/Extended Range Electric Vehicle

3.2 Battery Technology

3.2.1 Battery Chemistry

3.2.1.1 Lead Acid Batteries

3.2.1.2 Nickel-Sodium Chloride Batteries

3.2.1.3 Nickel Metal Hydride Batteries

3.2.1.4 Lithium Ion Batteries

3.2.1.5 Lithium Titanate Batteries

3.2.1.6 Growing Geopolitical Concerns with Lithium and Other Advanced Battery Chemicals

3.2.2 Safety Concerns

3.3 Ultracapacitors

3.4 Regenerative Braking

3.5 Recharging Infrastructure

3.5.1 Electric Utilities and Smart Grid Technologies

3.5.2 Vehicle Electronics and Engine Monitoring

4.     Demand Drivers

4.1 Market-Based Demand

4.1.1 Fuel Prices

4.1.1.1 Hypermiling

4.1.2 Consumer Preference

4.1.2.1 Niche Manufacturers

4.1.3 Global Warming and Peal Oil Awareness

4.2 Government Emissions Regulations

4.2.1 United States

4.2.1.1 CAFE Standards

4.2.1.2 EPA Emissions Limitations

4.2.2 Canada

4.2.3 Mexico

4.2.4 Europe

4.2.5 Japan

4.2.6 China

4.2.7 India

4.3 Government Incentives

4.3.1 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA)

4.3.2 Canada

4.3.3 Europe

4.3.4 Japan

4.3.5 China

4.3.6 Other Regulatory Incentives

5.     Key Industry Players

5.1 Original Equipment Manufacturers

5.1.1 BMW/Mini

5.1.2 Chinese Manufacturers

5.1.3 Chrysler

5.1.4 Daimler

5.1.5 Ford Motor Co.

5.1.6 Fiat

5.1.7 General Motors

5.1.8 Honda

5.1.9 Hyundai/Kia

5.1.10 Mitsubishi

5.1.11 Nissan/Renault

5.1.12 PSA Peugeot/Citroen

5.1.13 Toyota Motor Corp.

5.1.14 Volkswagen/Audi

5.2 Key Suppliers

5.2.1 A123 Systems

5.2.2 Cobasys

5.2.3 Eaton Corp.

5.2.4 EnergyCS (Battery Management Systems)

5.2.5 Enova Systems, Inc.

5.2.6 GS Yuasa

5.2.7 Johnson Controls-Saft

5.2.8 LG Chemical/Compact Power

5.2.9 National Alliance for Advanced Transportation Battery Cell Manufacture (NAATBCM)

5.2.10 Panasonic EV Energy

6.     Market Forecasts

6.1 Global Vehicle Sales Forecast: 2006-2015

6.1.1 United States and Canada

6.1.2 Latin America

6.1.3 Europe

6.1.4 Asia Pacific

6.2 Hybrid Electric Vehicles Forecast: 2006-2015

6.2.1 HEV Forecast

6.2.2 PHEV Forecast

6.2.3 HEV and PHEV Forecast for the Rest of the World

6.3 PHEV Sales Forecast by Vehicle Segment, United States: 2015

6.4 PHEV Registrations Forecast: 2009-2015

6.4.1 North America

6.4.2 Europe

6.4.3 Asia Pacific

6.5 Global Market Share Forecasts for Selected Manufacturers

6.5.1 Selected OEM PHEV Market Share Forecasts: 2010, 2015

6.5.1.1 Toyota Motor Corp. Market Share Forecasts: 2010-2015

6.5.1.2 General Motors Market Share Forecasts: 2010-2015

6.5.1.3 Ford Motor Co. Market Share Forecasts: 2010-2015

6.6 Summary and Conclusions

7. Company Directory

8. Acronym and Abbreviation List

9. Table of Contents

10. Table of Charts and Figures

11. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

 

List of Charts and Figures

• Total Hybrid Sales (HEVs and PHEVs), World Markets: 2007-2015
• HEV and PHEV Sales, World Markets: 2007-2015
• PHEV Sales by Segment, United Sates: 2015
• Global Lithium Reserves Base by Country: 2005
• Vehicle Sales, World Markets: 2006-2015
• Vehicle Sales, United States and Canada: 2006-2015
• Vehicle Sales, Latin America: 2006-2015
• Vehicle Sales, Western and Eastern Europe: 2006-2015
• Vehicle Sales, China, Japan, and India: 2006-2015
• HEV Sales, World Markets: 2006-2015
• PHEV Sales, World Markets: 2009-2015
• Total Hybrid Sales (HEVs and PHEVs), World Markets: 2007-2015
• PHEV Sales by Vehicle Segment, United States: 2015
• PHEV Registrations Forecast, World Markets: 2009-2015
• Selected OEM Global Market Shares, World Markets: 2007, 2009, 2015
• Selected OEM PHEV Market Shares, World Markets: 2010, 2015
• Typical State of Charge for Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles
• Series and Parallel Hybrid Drivetrains Diagram
• Peak Oil Curve – World Oil Production (Crude Oil + NGL) and Forecasts (1940-2050)
• Annual Automobile Vehicle Miles of Travel (VMT) per Capita: 1997
• PHEV Product Plans, North America: 2010-2012 & Beyond
• PHEV Product Plans, Europe: 2010-2012 & Beyond
• PHEV Product Plans, Asia Pacific: 2010-2012 & Beyond
• Consumer Preferences for Electric Vehicle Range

List of Tables

• Lithium Production, Country Markets: 2005
• Annual Growth in Light Vehicle Production, World Markets: 2007-2015
• Annual Light Vehicle Production, World Markets: 2006-2015
• Annual Growth in Total Vehicle Sales, World Markets: 2007-2015
• Annual Vehicle Sales, World Markets: 2006-2015
• HEV Sales Growth Rate, World Markets: 2007-2015
• HEV Sales, World Markets: 2006-2015
• PHEV Sales Growth Rate, World Markets: 2010-2015
• PHEV Sales, World Markets: 2009-2015
• Total Hybrid Electric Vehicle Sales (HEVs and PHEVs) Growth Rate, World Markets: 2007-2015
• Total Hybrid Electric Vehicle Sales (HEVs and PHEVs), World Markets: 2006-2015
• PHEV Sales by Segment, United Sates: 2010-2015
• PHEV Registration Growth Rates by Region, World Markets: 2010-2015
• PHEV Registrations by Region, World Markets: 2009-2015
• Global Market Share for Selected Manufacturers: 2007-2015
• Global Sales for Selected Manufacturers: 2007-2015
• Global PHEV Market Share for Selected Manufacturers: 2009-2015
• Global PHEV Sales for Selected Manufacturers: 2009-2015