Increasing numbers of countries and regions of the world have committed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and diversity energy resources to include more renewable sources. Meanwhile, the world’s electricity generation is expected to increase nearly two-fold by 2030 from 2007 levels. The traditional electricity grid’s centralized power generation model is very inefficient and limited. In most industrialized countries, the overall generation efficiency averages 30-35% by the time electricity reaches the customer and the electricity grid is getting more and more congested. Further, it is estimated that 33% of the global population lives without power today.
One of the key solutions to these challenges lies in Renewable Distributed Energy Generation. RDEG technologies are comprised of three principal technologies: photovoltaic, small wind, and fuell cells, and are often used in concert with emerging energy storage technologies. RDEG technologies generate power at the point of consumption, avoiding costly and inefficient transmission and distribution. RDEG technologies generate electricity with few if any emissions.
This Pike Research report provides an overview of the opportunities and challenges associated with deploying RDEG technologies on a global basis to meet the growing electricity needs of the planet. The report provides a comprehensive overview of the technologies as well as key drivers of growth over the next five years and beyond. The report takes an in-depth analysis of the key cost drivers of each RDEG technology. Detailed market forecasts of capacity, price, and installed system revenue potential are provided for each technology covering each significant global market. Key players in each category are also profiled.
Key questions addressed:
- Why is sub-utility scale Renewable Distributed Energy Generation (RDEG) an important part of the solution to the challenges of climate change?
- What are the key sub-utility scale RDEG technologies and how do they compare across a number of dimensions?
- How big is the RDEG category today and how large is the market forecast to grow?
- What are the key applications of RDEG technologies?
- What are the key drivers of growth for RDEG technologies?
- Who are the key industry players in the RDEG technology market?
This report is for:
- RDEG technology providers: PV, small wind, and fuel cell systems
- Distribution, installation, and service providers
- Venture capital and other equity investors
- RDEG project developers
- Government agencies
- Industry associations, non-profit organizations, and key industry consistuents
- Consulting firms and investment banks focused on RDEG technologies
Table of Contents
1. Executive Summary
2. Market Issues
2.1 Defining the Market
2.2 Photovoltaic Systems
2.3 Small Wind Systems
2.4 Fuel Cells
2.5 Energy Storage
2.5.1 Batteries
2.5.2 Compressed Air Energy Storage
2.5.3 Flywheels
2.5.4 Pumped Hydro
2.5.5 Supercapacitors
2.5.6 Superconducting Magnetic Energy Storage
2.6 Greening of Conventional DEG Technologies
2.6.1 Microturbines
2.6.2 Combustion Turbines
2.6.3 Reciprocating Engines
2.7 Market Segmentation
2.7.1 Global Cumulative Electricity Capacity
2.7.2 Global Cumulative Renewable Electricity Capacity
2.7.3 Global Electricity Generation Capacity Additions
2.7.4 Global Renewable Electricity Generation Capacity Additions
2.7.5 Global Distributed Renewable Electricity Generation Capacity Additions
2.8 Industry Growth Drivers
2.8.1 Legislative, Regulatory, Incentives, and Subsidies
2.8.2 Improvements to Existing Technologies
2.8.3 Emergence of New Technologies
2.8.4 Cogeneration
2.8.5 Other Drivers
2.8.5.1 Push for Energy Independence
2.8.5.2 Benefits of Green Marketing
2.8.5.3 Supporting Organizational Missions
2.9 Implementation Issues
2.9.1 Grid Interconnection
2.9.1.1 Grid Integrity and Safety
2.9.1.2 Grid Intelligence
2.9.1.2.1 Integration with System Components
2.9.1.2.2 Net Metering
2.9.1.2.3 Demand-Side Management
2.9.2 Standards and Permitting
3. Technology Issues
3.1 Photovoltaic Systems
3.1.1 History
3.1.2 Basic Principles
3.1.3 Strengths and Weaknesses
3.1.4 Types
3.1.5 Market Trends
3.1.5.1 Installs by Country
3.1.5.2 Grid Tied vs. Off Grid
3.1.6 Marketability and Commercialization
3.1.6.1 Cost
3.1.6.1.1 Module Cost
3.1.6.1.2 Economies of Scale
3.1.6.1.3 Silicon Per Watt
3.1.6.1.4 Silicon Supply
3.1.6.1.5 PV System Installed Cost
3.1.6.2 Efficiency
3.1.6.3 Reliability
3.1.6.4 Scalability
3.1.6.5 Availability
3.2 Small Wind Systems
3.2.1 History
3.2.2. Basic Principles
3.2.3 Strengths and Weaknesses
3.2.4 Types
3.2.5 Market Trends
3.2.5.1 Grid Tied vs. Off Grid
3.2.5.2 Other Trends
3.2.6 Marketability and Commercialization
3.2.6.1 Cost
3.2.6.2 Efficiency
3.2.6.3 Scalability
3.2.6.5 Availability
3.3 Fuel Cells
3.3.1 History
3.3.2 Basic Principles
3.3.3 Strengths and Weaknesses
3.3.4 Types
3.3.5 Market Trends
3.3.6 Marketability and Commercialization
3.3.6.1 Cost
3.3.6.2 Efficiency
3.3.6.3 Reliability
3.3.6.4 Scalability
3.3.6.5 Availability
3.3.6.6 Fuel Cell Summary Comparison
3.4 RDEG Applications
3.4.1 Residential Off Grid
3.4.2 Residential Grid Tied
3.4.3 Residential Cogeneration
3.4.4 Commercial and Retail
3.4.5 Institutions, Schools, and Government
3.4.6 Farms
3.4.7 Community Micro Grid
3.4.8 Telecom Primary and Backup Power
3.4.9 Industrial / Large Commercial
3.4.10 Hybrid Systems
3.4.11 Application Comparison
4. Demand Drivers
4.1 Legislation, Regulations, Incentives, and Subsidies
4.1.1 North America
4.1.1.1 United States
4.1.1.2 Canada
4.1.2 Latin America
4.1.3 Europe
4.1.3.1 Germany
4.1.3.2 Spain
4.1.3.3 Italy
4.1.3.4 United Kingdom
4.1.3.5 France
4.1.3.6 European Union
4.1.3.7 Rest of Europe
4.1.4 Asia Pacific
4.1.4.1 China
4.1.4.2 Japan
4.1.4.3 India
4.1.4.4 Korea
4.1.5 Rest of the World
4.2 Nonlegislative, Regulatory, Incentives, and Funding Drivers
4.2.1 Conventional Energy Demand Trends
4.2.2 Economics Overview
4.2.2.1 Conventional Electricity Price
4.2.2.2 RDEG Technology Price
4.2.3 Break-Even Analysis
4.2.3.1 Photovoltaics
4.2.3.2 Small Wind
4.2.3.3 Fuel Cells
5. Market Forecasts
5.1 World Energy Generation
5.2 World Renewable Distributed Energy Generation
5.3 Photovoltaic Systems
5.3.1 North America
5.3.2 Europe
5.3.3 Asia Pacific
5.3.4 Rest of the World
5.4 Wind Systems
5.4.1 North America
5.4.2 Europe
5.4.3 Asia Pacific
5.4.4 Rest of the World
5.5 Fuel Cells
5.5.1 North America
5.5.2 Europe
5.5.3 Asia Pacific
5.5.4 Rest of the World
6. Industry Players / Competitive Landscape
6.1 Photovoltaic Systems
6.1.1 Q-Cells
6.1.2 SolarWorld
6.1.3 Suntech
6.1.4 First Solar
6.1.5 SunPower
6.1.6 Solaria
6.2 Wind Systems
6.2.1 Southwest Windpower
6.2.2 Proven Energy
6.2.3 Bergey Windpower
6.2.4 Gaia-Wind
6.2.5 Northern Power
6.2.6 Entegrity Wind Systems
6.3 Fuel Cells
6.3.1 FuelCell Energy
6.3.2 Ballard Power Systems
6.3.3 IdaTech
6.3.4 Ceramic Fuel Cells Limited
6.3.5 ReliOn
7. Company Directory
7.1 Solar
7.2 Wind
7.3 Fuel Cells
8. Acronym List
9. Table of Contents
10. Table of Figures
11. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes
Table of Charts and Figures
- Segmentation of Major Electricity Generation Sources into Renewable and Distributed
- Global Cumulative Electricity Capacity by Source, 2007
- Global Cumulative Renewable Electricity Capacity, Distributed vs. Centralized – 2007
- Global Cumulative Renewable Electricity Capacity by Source – 2007
- Global Renewable Electricity Generation Capacity Add, Distributed vs. Centralized – 2007
- Global Renewable Electricity Generation Capacity Additions by Source – 2007
- Annual PV Installations for OECD Countries, 2003-2008
- Cumulative Installed PV Systems, Grid Tied vs. Off Grid, 2003-2008
- Representative Global Deployments of Telecom Backup Power by Technology
- U.S. Renewable Portfolio Standards, Goals, and Required Renewables
- Comparative Household Electricity Prices for Industrialized Countries, 1999-2006
- Comparative Industry Electricity Prices for Industrialized Countries, 1999-2006
- Electricity Generation Sources for U.S., OECD, Europe, and Japan – 2007
- Comparative Prices of Conventional and RDEG Electricity Generation Sources
- SunPower PV Value Chain Cost Reduction Model, 2006-2012
- Installed PV System Price Projection, 2007-2013
- Range of Installed Prices for 10-kW Small Wind System – 2007
- Estimate of Payback on 10-kW Small Wind System – 2007
- Installed Small Wind System Price Projection, 2007-2013
- Ballard Power Stationary Application Shipment and Price Plans, 2007-2010
- Ballard Power Cost Reduction Plans for Telecom Backup Fuel Cell Stack, 2008-2010
- Ballard Power Cost Reduction Plans for Residential Micro CHP Fuel Cell Stack, 2008-2010
- FuellCell Energy Production Cost Reductions and Comparison to Grid Power Costs, 1996-2008
- Installed Fuel Cell System Price Projections by Application, 2007-2013
- Global Installed Electricity Generating Capacity by Geographic Region, 2005-2025
- Annual RDEG Technologies Capacity Additions, 2007-2013
- Annual RDEG Technology Revenue, 2007-2013
- Distributed Sub-Utility Scale PV Deployments as % of Total, 2008
- Schematic of Basic Fuel Cell Operation by Electrolyte and Application
- Summary Comparison of RDEG Technologies
- Summary of Relevant RDEG Standards and Permitting Agencies
- Summary Comparison of Fuel Cell Technologies and Applications
- Summary Comparison of Applications by RDEG Technology
- Summary of Emission Reduction Targets for Major Industrialized Countries and Regions
- Summary Comparison of U.S. Federal Tax Credit for RDEG Technologies
- Summary of U.S. Federal Subsidies and Incentives for RDEG Technologies
- Worldwide PV Capacity Projection Scenarios for Total and Distributed Capacity, 2007-2010
Table of Tables
- Annual Growth of Distributed PV Capacity, World Markets: 2008 to 2013
- Distributed PV Global Installed Capacity, World Markets: 2007 to 2013
- Distributed PV System Installed Price, World Markets: 2007 to 2013
- Distributed PV Installed System Revenue, World Markets: 2007 to 2013
- Annual Growth of Small Wind Capacity, World Markets: 2008 to 2013
- Small Wind Global Installed Capacity, World Markets: 2007 to 2013
- Small Wind System Installed Price, World Markets: 2007 to 2013
- Small Wind Installed System Revenue, World Markets: 2007 to 2013
- Annual Growth of Fuel Cell Capacity – Large Stationary, World Markets: 2008 to 2013
- Fuel Cells Global Capacity – Large Stationary, World Markets: 2007 to 2013
- Fuel Cells Installed Price – Large Stationary, World Markets: 2007 to 2013
- Fuel Cells System Revenue – Large Stationary, World Markets: 2007 to 2013
- Annual Growth of Fuel Cell Capacity – Small Stationary, World Markets: 2008 to 2013
- Fuel Cells Global Capacity – Small Stationary, World Markets: 2007 to 2013
- Fuel Cells Installed Price – Small Stationary, World Markets: 2007 to 2013
- Fuel Cells System Revenue – Small Stationary, World Markets: 2007 to 2013
- Annual Growth of Fuel Cell Capacity – Combined Stationary, World Markets: 2008 to 2013
- Fuel Cells Global Capacity – Combined Stationary, World Markets: 2007 to 2013
- Fuel Cells Installed Price – Combined Stationary, World Markets: 2007 to 2013
- Fuel Cells System Revenue – Combined Stationary, World Markets: 2007 to 2013
- Annual Growth of RDEG Technologies, World Markets: 2008 to 2013
- RDEG Technologies Global Capacity, World Markets: 2007 to 2013
- RDEG Technologies Installed Price, World Markets: 2007 to 2013
- RDEG Technologies System Revenue, World Markets: 2007 to 2013
