The solar industry experienced the proverbial “perfect storm” of market-changing events in 2009 that redefined the rules of the game and therefore altered the competitive landscape as well. These events have had a strong influence on which companies will lead the industry in 2010 and beyond. Starting in late 2008, the solar market shifted from supply-constricted to demand-driven within a few quarters due to the strong growth in crystalline silicon cells and module production, constrained availability of credit, Spain’s dramatic demand decline, and the growth of thin film supply and market share.
This Pike Research white paper examines the new competitive differentiators that will determine success for solar companies following the market upheaval of the past two years. The report analyzes the market dynamics associated with module oversupply and a large number of competitors, and provides insights on the importance of cost per watt, module efficiency, supply chain integration, and other key factors. This study also include detailed quantitative analysis and forecasts of solar market demand and module manufacturing capacity.
What Does This Report Answer?
- What were the causes of the solar market disruption of 2008 and 2009?
- What will be the key market trends and issues to watch in 2010 and beyond?
- What are the key competitive differentiators that will characterize successful solar companies over the next few years?
- What is the forecast for solar market demand by world region?
- What is the outlook for solar demand in key countries?
- Who are the top competitors in the solar market?
- What is the expected total solar manufacturing capacity for 2010?
Who Needs This Report?
- Solar Project Developers
- Solar Installers/Integrators
- Solar Cell and Module Manufacturers
- Solar Equipment Vendors
- Government Agencies
- Investor Community
- Solar Industry Associations
- Utilities
Table of Contents
1. Executive Summary
1.1 Solar Market Demand is Recovering after a Difficult 2009
1.2 Module Oversupply is Likely
1.3 Low Cost per Watt is Now the Primary Differentiator
1.4 Module Efficiency and Cost Define Winning Companies
1.5 Moving Down the Supply Chain is Growing in Importance
1.6 Other Market Differentiators to Watch in 2010 and Beyond
2. Worldwide Solar Demand
2.1 The Solar Market is Now Demand-Driven
2.2 Dramatic Consequences of the Market Shift
2.3 Solar Demand Will Rebound to 10.1 GW in 2010
2.4 Solar Demand by Region through 2013
3. Solar Market Oversupply
3.1 Tier 1 Companies Could Supply Entire Market Demand
3.2 Additional Capacity Increases Oversupply
3.3 Small Companies Add to Solar Market Oversupply
3.4 Large Oversupply in 2010 is Likely
4. Cost per Watt
4.1 Low Cost per Watt is Now the Primary Competitive Differentiator
4.2 Low-Cost Countries Lead the Way
4.3 Low-Cost Materials
4.4 Low-Cost Processes
4.5 Economies of Scale
4.6 Cost Measurement
5. Module Efficiency
5.1 The Importance of Efficiency
5.2 Efficiency of Today’s Modules
5.3 Module Efficiency Alone Does Not Define Which Modules Win Orders
6. Supply Chain Integration
6.1 Delivering Power, Not Just Modules
6.2 Providing “One-Stop Shopping”
7. Emerging Competitive Differentiators
7.1 Market Presence in Large and Emerging Markets
7.2 Strong Balance Sheets and Internal Financing of Growth
7.3 Module Manufacturing in NAFTA and Low-Cost EU Countries
8. Acronym and Abbreviation List
9. Table of Contents
10. Table of Charts & Figures
11. Scope of Study, Sources, and Methodology
List of Figures
- Solar Market Demand Shift
- Solar Market Demand by Country (MW), World Markets: 2010
- Solar Market Demand by Region, World Markets: 2007-2013
- Second-Tier Module Manufacturing Capacity, World Markets: 2009 and 2010
- Total Solar Manufacturing Capacity, World Markets: 2009 and 2010
- Total Solar Supply, World Markets: 2010
- Total Solar Supply, World Markets: 2010
- Module Efficiency by Technology
- Top Competitors in Solar: 2010